Machine Learning

Generalized Linear Models (GLM)

Generalized linear models extend linear regression to outcomes that are not normally distributed, such as counts, yes-or-no events, and skewed amounts, by linking a weighted sum of inputs to the outcome through a chosen function.

What are generalized linear models?

Generalized linear models (GLMs) are a family of statistical models that keep the weighted-sum structure of linear regression but allow the outcome to follow distributions other than the bell curve. A link function connects the weighted sum to the outcome’s expected value, and a distribution describes how the outcome scatters around it. Linear regression is the GLM with an identity link and normal errors. Logistic regression is the GLM with a logit link and a binomial outcome. Poisson regression models counts, and gamma regression models positive, skewed amounts.

The appeal is that the coefficients stay interpretable while the model respects the nature of the data. A count cannot be negative and an amount is rarely symmetric, and a GLM built for them produces sensible predictions where plain linear regression does not.

Generalized linear models in practice

A commercial auto insurer prices policies with two GLMs. A Poisson model predicts the number of claims a vehicle will generate in a year from its class, radius of operation, driver history, and territory. A gamma model predicts the average cost of a claim given that one occurs. Multiplying the two gives the expected loss that the premium must cover. Regulators in many states expect to see exactly this structure in a rate filing, with each coefficient documented. Hospitals use Poisson and negative binomial GLMs in the same way to model readmission counts and length of stay.

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